Some losing manifestoes end up being famous. The Labour 1983 manifesto is one of the best known of all. Some are quite sensible and end up informing the policy of the new government. There was quite a lot in the Tory manifesto in 1997 which ended up as Labour policy. Today we had a Conservative party manifesto that will be neither famous nor useful. It will be read by few and soon forgotten by all of them. I will read it so that you don’t have to.
If Rishi Sunak’s speech, at the unveiling at Silverstone, had been the opening salvo of his campaign, and if his campaign had been preceded by 18 months of solid Conservative government, then he might – might - have had a chance. If Sunak had chosen, on becoming Prime Minister, to take on the right of his party, rather than to conciliate it, he might have been able to win over voters tempted by Keir Starmer. It was his biggest mistake, and he will not recover from it.
In that context, any campaign mistakes are small by comparison, even errors as egregious as leaving the D-Day commemorations early. And in that context too, it is hard to imagine that there is anything that could feasibly be included in the Conservative party manifesto that could have turned around the election. Abolish inheritance tax? Shares in Buckingham Palace to anyone who voted Tory? Furlough at all times, not just during pandemics?
None of it can overcome the strategic mistake Sunak made early. It was symbolized by two moments at Silverstone. First, in a mostly assured session responding to questions, Sunak gave a thorough answer to a question about levelling up. If the Tories had taken this policy seriously they might conceivably be in a better state in the Brexit-voting constituencies that are about to return to the Labour party. Sadly, they have done next to nothing.
The second instance was that, in his strange remarks about the Rwanda scheme to send away illegal migrants. Sunak said that flights would leave from July and that there would be a “regular rhythm” thereafter. But if that is true, why have an election now? Why not wait? Because, in truth, the attempt to conciliate the Tory right has failed. The policy will not work and should have been abandoned on the first day of Sunak’s premiership.
The manifesto had been widely trailed and there was not much in it that was unexpected. Concentrating a future abolition of National Insurance on the self-employed has the virtue of raising the question of enterprise but it is a strange carve out, really. Beyond that and the migration promises, it was a remarkably policy free speech. One line on Brexit – it is remarkable how entirely committed Brexiteers like Sunak have airbrushed their signature policy – and nothing to speak of on housing, education or health.
In truth, this was a defensive move, designed in the hope of scaring people away from the Labour party. As a critique of the Labour party, and of some of the difficulties Labour might face in office, it was serviceable. The flaw there, though, is obvious. The inheritance will indeed be terrible but who is leaving that inheritance? This was probably Sunak’s best performance in an age. But it was all too late, all too obviously in the shadow of the decision to try to win from the right hand side of the Conservative party.